Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections.

Environmental and ecosystem models can help to guide management of changing natural systems by projecting alternative future states under a common set of scenarios. Combining contrasting models into multi-model ensembles (MMEs) can improve the skill and reliability of projections, but associated uncertainty complicates communication of outputs, affecting both the effectiveness of management decisions and, sometimes, public trust in scientific evidence itself. Effective data visualisation can play a key role in accurately communicating such complex outcomes, but we lack an evidence base to enable us to design them to be visually appealing whilst also effectively communicating accurate information. To address this, we conducted a survey to identify the most effective methods for visually communicating the outputs of an ensemble of global climate models. We measured the accuracy, confidence, and ease with which the survey participants were able to interpret 10 visualisations depicting the same set of model outputs in different ways, as well as their preferences. Dot and box plots outperformed all other visualisations, heat maps and radar plots were comparatively ineffective, while our infographic scored highly for visual appeal but lacked information necessary for accurate interpretation. We provide a set of guidelines for visually communicating the outputs of MMEs across a wide range of research areas, aimed at maximising the impact of the visualisations, whilst minimizing the potential for misinterpretations, increasing the societal impact of the models and ensuring they are well-placed to support management in the future.

Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts.

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research.

What's hot and what's not: Making sense of biodiversity 'hotspots'.

Conserving biogeographic regions with especially high biodiversity, known as biodiversity 'hotspots', is intuitive because finite resources can be focussed towards manageable units. Yet, biodiversity, environmental conditions and their relationship are more complex with multidimensional properties. Assessments which ignore this risk failing to detect change, identify its direction or gauge the scale of appropriate intervention. Conflicting concepts which assume assemblages as either sharply delineated communities or loosely collected species have also hampered progress in the way we assess and conserve biodiversity. We focus on the marine benthos where delineating manageable areas for conservation is an attractive prospect because it holds most marine species and constitutes the largest single ecosystem on earth by area. Using two large UK marine benthic faunal datasets, we present a spatially gridded data sampling design to account for survey effects which would otherwise be the principal drivers of diversity estimates. We then assess γ-diversity (regional richness) with diversity partitioned between α (local richness) and ß (dissimilarity), and their change in relation to covariates to test whether defining and conserving biodiversity hotspots is an effective conservation strategy in light of the prevailing forces structuring those assemblages. α-, ß- and γ-diversity hotspots were largely inconsistent with each metric relating uniquely to the covariates, and loosely collected species generally prevailed with relatively few distinct assemblages. Hotspots could therefore be an unreliable means to direct conservation efforts if based on only a component part of diversity. When assessed alongside environmental gradients, α-, ß- and γ-diversity provide a multidimensional but still intuitive perspective of biodiversity change that can direct conservation towards key drivers and the appropriate scale for intervention. Our study also highlights possible temporal declines in species richness over 30 years and thus the need for future integrated monitoring to reveal the causal drivers of biodiversity change.

Linking dimensions of data on global marine animal diversity.

Recent decades have seen an explosion in the amount of data available on all aspects of biodiversity, which has led to data-driven approaches to understand how and why diversity varies in time and space. Global repositories facilitate access to various classes of species-level data including biogeography, genetics and conservation status, which are in turn required to study different dimensions of diversity. Ensuring that these different data sources are interoperable is a challenge as we aim to create synthetic data products to monitor the state of the world's biodiversity. One way to approach this is to link data of different classes, and to inventory the availability of data across multiple sources. Here, we use a comprehensive list of more than 200 000 marine animal species, and quantify the availability of data on geographical occurrences, genetic sequences, conservation assessments and DNA barcodes across all phyla and broad functional groups. This reveals a very uneven picture: 44% of species are represented by no record other than their taxonomy, but some species are rich in data. Although these data-rich species are concentrated into a few taxonomic and functional groups, especially vertebrates, data are spread widely across marine animals, with members of all 32 phyla represented in at least one database. By highlighting gaps in current knowledge, our census of marine diversity data helps to prioritize future data collection activities, as well as emphasizing the importance of ongoing sustained observations and archiving of existing data into global repositories. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Marine conservation: towards a multi-layered network approach.

Valuing, managing and conserving marine biodiversity and a full range of ecosystem services is at the forefront of research and policy agendas. However, biodiversity is being lost at up to a thousand times the average background rate. Traditional disciplinary and siloed conservation approaches are not able to tackle this massive loss of biodiversity because they generally ignore or overlook the interactive and dynamic nature of ecosystems processes, limiting their predictability. To conserve marine biodiversity, we must assess the interactions and impacts among biodiversity and ecosystem services (BD-ES). The scaling up in complexity from single species to entire communities is necessary, albeit challenging, for a deeper understanding of how ecosystem services relate to biodiversity and the roles species have in ecosystem service provision. These interactions are challenging to map, let alone fully assess, but network and system-based approaches provide a powerful way to progress beyond those limitations. Here, we introduce a conceptual multi-layered network approach to understanding how ecosystem services supported by biodiversity drive the total service provision, how different stressors impact BD-ES and where conservation efforts should be placed to optimize the delivery of ecosystem services and protection of biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Occupancy-derived thermal affinities reflect known physiological thermal limits of marine species.

Predicting how species will respond to increased environmental temperatures is key to understanding the ecological consequences of global change. The physiological tolerances of a species define its thermal limits, while its thermal affinity is a summary of the environmental temperatures at the localities at which it actually occurs. Experimentally derived thermal limits are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges in marine species, but accurate range maps from which to derive latitudinal ranges are lacking for many marine species. An alternative approach is to combine widely available data on global occurrences with gridded global temperature datasets to derive measures of species-level "thermal affinity"-that is, measures of the central tendency, variation, and upper and lower bounds of the environmental temperatures at the locations at which a species has been recorded to occur. Here, we test the extent to which such occupancy-derived measures of thermal affinity are related to the known thermal limits of marine species using data on 533 marine species from 24 taxonomic classes and with experimentally derived critical upper temperatures spanning 2-44.5°C. We show that thermal affinity estimates are consistently and positively related to the physiological tolerances of marine species, despite gaps and biases in the source data. Our method allows thermal affinity measures to be rapidly and repeatably estimated for many thousands more marine species, substantially expanding the potential to assess vulnerability of marine communities to warming seas.

Increased energy differentially increases richness and abundance of optimal body sizes in deep-sea wood falls.

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that the total energy available in natural communities influences body size as well as patterns of abundance and diversity. But the precise mechanisms underlying these relationships or how these three ecological properties relate remain elusive. We identify five hypotheses relating energy availability, body size distributions, abundance, and species richness within communities, and we use experimental deep-sea wood fall communities to test their predicted effects both on descriptors describing the species-richness-body-size distribution, and on trends in species richness within size classes over an energy gradient (size-class-richness relationships). Invertebrate communities were taxonomically identified, weighed, and counted from 32 Acacia sp. logs ranging in size from 0.6 to 20.6 kg (corresponding to different levels of energy available), which were deployed at 3,203 m in the Northeast Pacific Ocean for 5 and 7 yr. Trends in both the species-richness-body-size distribution and the size-class-richness distribution with increasing wood fall size provide support for the Increased Packing hypothesis: species richness increases with increasing wood fall size but only in the modal size class. Furthermore, species richness of body size classes reflected the abundance of individuals in that size class. Thus, increases in richness in the modal size class with increasing energy were concordant with increases in abundance within that size class. The results suggest that increases in species richness occurring as energy availability increases may be isolated to specific niches, e.g., the body size classes, especially in communities developing on discrete and energetically isolated resources such as deep sea wood falls.

Functional, size and taxonomic diversity of fish along a depth gradient in the deep sea.

Biodiversity is well studied in ecology and the concept has been developed to include traits of species, rather than solely taxonomy, to better reflect the functional diversity of a system. The deep sea provides a natural environmental gradient within which to study changes in different diversity metrics, but traits of deep-sea fish are not widely known, hampering the application of functional diversity to this globally important system. We used morphological traits to determine the functional richness and functional divergence of demersal fish assemblages along the continental slope in the Northeast Atlantic, at depths of 300-2,000 m. We compared these metrics to size diversity based on individual body size and species richness. Functional richness and size diversity showed similar patterns, with the highest diversity at intermediate depths; functional divergence showed the opposite pattern, with the highest values at the shallowest and deepest parts of the study site. Species richness increased with depth. The functional implications of these patterns were deduced by examining depth-related changes in morphological traits and the dominance of feeding guilds as illustrated by stable isotope analyses. The patterns in diversity and the variation in certain morphological traits can potentially be explained by changes in the relative dominance of pelagic and benthic feeding guilds. All measures of diversity examined here suggest that the deep areas of the continental slope may be equally or more diverse than assemblages just beyond the continental shelf.

Conservation: Threatened by Luxury.

When animals are traded in lucrative international luxury markets, individuals really do matter to conservation. Identifying the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that make some species especially vulnerable to this kind of threat helps set guidelines for more effective conservation.

A trait-based metric sheds new light on the nature of the body size-depth relationship in the deep sea.

Variation within species is an often-overlooked aspect of community ecology, despite the fact that the ontogenetic structure of populations influences processes right up to the ecosystem level. Accounting for traits at the individual level is an important advance in the implementation of trait-based approaches in understanding community structure and function. We incorporate individual- and species-level traits into one succinct assemblage structure metric, fractional size, which is calculated as the length of an individual divided by its potential maximum length. We test the implementation of fractional size in demersal fish assemblages along a depth gradient in the deep sea. We use data from an extensive trawl survey at depths of 300-2030 m on the continental slope of the Rockall Trough, Northeast Atlantic, to compare changes in fractional size structure along an environmental gradient to those seen using traditional taxonomic and trait-based approaches. The relationship between fractional size and depth was particularly strong, with the overall pattern being an increase with depth, implying that individuals move deeper as they grow. Body size increased with depth at the intraspecific and assemblage levels. Fractional size, size structure and species composition all varied among assemblages, and this variation could be explained by the depth that the assemblage occupied. The inclusion of individual-level traits and population fractional size structure adds to our understanding at the assemblage level. Fractional size, or where an individual is in its growth trajectory, appears to be an especially important driver of assemblage change with depth. This has implications for understanding fisheries impacts in the deep sea and how these impacts may propagate across depths.

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques.

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input - NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980-2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea-bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad-scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive).

New Approaches to Marine Conservation Through the Scaling Up of Ecological Data.

In an era of rapid global change, conservation managers urgently need improved tools to track and counter declining ecosystem conditions. This need is particularly acute in the marine realm, where threats are out of sight, inadequately mapped, cumulative, and often poorly understood, thereby generating impacts that are inefficiently managed. Recent advances in macroecology, statistical analysis, and the compilation of global data will play a central role in improving conservation outcomes, provided that global, regional, and local data streams can be integrated to produce locally relevant and interpretable outputs. Progress will be assisted by (a) expanded rollout of systematic surveys that quantify species patterns, including some carried out with help from citizen scientists; (b) coordinated experimental research networks that utilize large-scale manipulations to identify mechanisms underlying these patterns;

Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm.

Extracting order from elegant chaos: implications of the marine diversity spectrum.

How do we begin to extract order from the elegant chaos of natural ecosystems? In a landmark new paper published in this issue, Reuman et al. (2014) go back to first principles, combining a range of established body size- and species-centred ecological theories with empirically well-supported relationships to construct a model that enables them to predict key features using only remarkably simple biological and environmental measurements. They test this model using widely available data on the communities living in all of the world's coastal seas. Here, I discuss the key features of their model, and especially how the general patterns they document can lead to further, empirically driven tests of theory across multiple ecosystems.

Marine and terrestrial ecology: unifying concepts, revealing differences.

The extent to which similar ecological processes operate on land and in the sea has been much debated, with apparently 'fundamental' differences often disappearing when appropriate comparisons are made. However, marine and terrestrial ecology have developed as largely separate intellectual endeavours, which has hampered the search for general patterns and mechanisms. Here, I argue that marine-terrestrial comparative studies can be extremely useful at uncovering mechanisms when they explicitly consider those facets of the environment that are important to a particular hypothesis. Furthermore, the binary 'marine-terrestrial' division misses many opportunities for more interesting comparisons, several of which I highlight here. Increasing the flow of concepts, hypotheses, and data between marine and terrestrial ecologists is essential to reveal those differences that really are important.

Frontiers of marine science.

On 9-13 October 2010 early career scientists from the UK and Australia across marine research fields were given the opportunity to come together in Perth, Australia to discuss the frontiers of marine research and exchange ideas.

Biodiversity's big wet secret: the global distribution of marine biological records reveals chronic under-exploration of the deep pelagic ocean.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the distribution of marine biodiversity is a crucial first step towards the effective and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. Recent efforts to collate location records from marine surveys enable us to assemble a global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. They also effectively highlight gaps in our knowledge of particular marine regions. In particular, the deep pelagic ocean--the largest biome on Earth--is chronically under-represented in global databases of marine biodiversity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System to plot the position in the water column of ca 7 million records of marine species occurrences. Records from relatively shallow waters dominate this global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. In addition, standardising the number of records from regions of the ocean differing in depth reveals that regardless of ocean depth, most records come either from surface waters or the sea bed. Midwater biodiversity is drastically under-represented. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The deep pelagic ocean is the largest habitat by volume on Earth, yet it remains biodiversity's big wet secret, as it is hugely under-represented in global databases of marine biological records. Given both its value in the provision of a range of ecosystem services, and its vulnerability to threats including overfishing and climate change, there is a pressing need to increase our knowledge of Earth's largest ecosystem.

Biodiversity research sets sail: showcasing the diversity of marine life.

The World Congress on Marine Biodiversity was held in the City of Arts and Sciences, Valencia, from 10 to 15 November 2008, showcasing research on all aspects of marine biodiversity from basic taxonomic exploration to innovative conservation strategies and methods to integrate research into environmental policy.